They say the “summer slide” causes students to forget everything they learned before school let out in the spring. But their parents have apparently already learned a lesson they won’t soon forget.
Back-to-school shoppers are “leaning on the savvy shopping habits they’ve honed during the past few years of high prices,” Deloitte noted in a recent report. That report, along with several others, show that higher prices are impacting what shoppers are willing to buy this year – and how much they’re willing to spend.
For some, school is already in session and their shopping is done. Way back in April, Ibotta surveyed shoppers and found “a clear shift toward earlier back-to-school shopping,” with 47% expecting to do most of their shopping in July, a 10% increase over last year. That prediction was borne out by data from the National Retail Federation, which found that two-thirds of shoppers had already done some or all of their shopping last month, the highest percentage of early shoppers since NRF started keeping track in 2018.
“This shift from the majority of purchases occurring in August to July could mean shoppers are planning ahead to try to get the best deals possible,” Ibotta surmised. The majority of shoppers who later spoke to the NRF said that’s exactly why they got an early start.
Some are putting off their shopping as long as possible, though – particularly college students who generally start later than their younger counterparts. Nearly half of those who still have shopping to do told the NRF they’re holding out for even better deals. A quarter are trying to stretch their dollars by spreading out their spending.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a statement.
Ibotta found that 78% of shoppers expect rising prices to have an impact on their back-to-school shopping this year. Among those who expect to spend less, 58% said it was due to concerns about the economy, with another 51% saying they’re just trying to reduce their overall spending, and back-to-school time is no exception. In many cases, “economic pressures are causing shoppers to potentially opt to use what they already have instead of buying new,” Ibotta found.
For the purchases they can’t avoid making, virtually all shoppers told Ibotta they’re looking for deals. If they can’t find one, 44% will purchase a lower-priced brand and 42% said they’ll switch to a private label item.
A separate Yahoo DSP survey about back-to-school advertising found that “shoppers are most drawn to messaging that highlights value, convenience, and practicality,” with 62% saying deals and discounts are the most appealing. When choosing a brand to buy, most said price is the most important factor, followed by quality, and the availability of promotions and deals. Only 29% said their child’s preference is most important, indicating that no amount of nagging is going to get these shoppers to go beyond their budget.
“With economic concerns on their minds, parents are honing their value-seeking skills to keep budgets in check,” Deloitte found. With four in ten shoppers “showing signs of value seeking: making more cost-conscious choices, deal-driven purchases, and convenience sacrifices,” retailers that can “appeal to the value-seeking consumer will likely be best positioned.”
And that goes for more than just sales of backpacks and pencils. There are school lunches to pack, and after-school snacks to prepare. And Ibotta says that represents an opportunity for grocery brands.
While Ibotta’s figures show that August sees a spike in sales of snacks, cookies and chips, “our deli category, which includes meat from the deli counter as well as prepackaged options, remains relatively flat over the course of the year,” Ibotta found. So “running digital promotions on items that often appear in kids’ lunch boxes can help drive incremental sales and make the most of an opportunity to win market share,” it advised brands.
Once classes are officially in session for everyone, the NRF predicts that overall back-to-school spending will reach $128.2 billion this year, a 2% increase over last year, but down nearly 6% from the recent high of $135.5 billion in 2023.
By then, students who slacked off over the summer will be back in the swing of things. As for their parents, who’ve learned to budget as prices rise, it appears there’s been no “summer slide” when it comes to saving.
Image source: Target
