Tariffs aren’t making banner headlines quite the way they did a few months ago, as they haven’t caused prices to spike as initially feared. But that doesn’t mean they won’t in the near future. So retailers and shoppers are considering their strategies, just in case.
Several new reports offer some insight into what shoppers are doing, what retailers plan to do, what shoppers think about what retailers plan to do, and what products you might want to stock up on while you still can.
A survey from Reach3 Insights and Rival Technologies has found that many shoppers are already changing their buying behaviors, “shopping at discount retailers, using more coupons, and switching to no-name brands to stay within budget.”
A majority of shoppers surveyed say they plan to cut down on non-essential purchases. About a third plan to start budgeting, switch to more affordable brands, delay larger purchases and buy smaller quantities. A quarter plan to stock up on household essentials for fear that prices will soon go up.
Grocery prices are shoppers’ greatest worry, with two-thirds anticipating higher prices for food. Others fear price hikes in categories like electronics, clothing, household items and health care.
According to Numerator, though, you don’t have to guess about which prices are likely to go up. The market research firm has launched a “tariff risk index” to gauge which specific consumer products are most vulnerable to tariff-related price hikes.
“Items heavily reliant on Chinese plastic and rubber continue to rank among the most vulnerable,” Numerator pointed out, “while categories with strong domestic production show significantly lower risk.”
Just in time for summer cookouts, Numerator ranked plastic utensils as the number-one item at risk for tariff-related price disruptions. Disposable tableware is close behind, followed by disparate items like hangers, baking dishes and pans, matches and lighters, and light bulbs.
On the other end of the list, cream is rated least likely to be impacted by tariffs, followed by canned tomatoes, allergy medicine, fresh carrots, dishwasher detergent packs, and Greek yogurt.
“Insulated categories may present opportunities to reinforce value and stability in messaging,” Numerator advised retailers, while “high-risk categories may require proactive pricing, sourcing, or promotional strategies to offset consumer sensitivity.”
Shoppers in the Reach3 Insights and Rival Technologies survey would likely agree with Numerator’s advice. Many urged brands “to offer meaningful discounts, reward loyal customers,” and “show empathy, not opportunism” by avoiding the urge to try to profit from the situation.
In fact, most shoppers who responded to yet another survey said they will be angry if retailers raise prices – but most retailers expect to do it anyway.
First Insight’s “Tariffs & Trust: Why Retailers Risk Loyalty with Price Hikes Study” found that “any price increase is too much” for shoppers, with nearly a third saying even the slightest increase would cause them to shift their spending habits.
While the majority of shoppers said they know brands are not ultimately to blame for tariff-related costs, they’re skeptical that tariffs alone are the reason prices are likely to rise, believing that brands are preparing to “use tariffs as an excuse to increase prices.” Three-quarters said they would feel more loyal to brands that absorb tariff-related increases, while another three-quarters said they’d have no problem abandoning their favorite brand for a cheaper option if prices rise too much.
All is not lost, though, for retailers caught between rising costs and rebellious customers. “Retailers that increase prices can win consumers’ loyalty in other ways,” First Insight stated. The first is “clear communication” about why prices are rising. The second is “new efforts to soften the blow, including offering loyalty points or discounts.”
For now, shoppers and retailers alike are watching and waiting to see whether tariffs will have the impact that many have feared. And while they wait, shoppers aren’t feeling very hopeful. “Overall consumer sentiment is deeply negative, with most participants reporting emotions like stress, pessimism, frustration, or anxiety,” Reach3 Insights and Rival Technologies’ report found.
The once mildly-pleasant chore of grocery shopping hasn’t been very pleasant for some lately. The coming months may determine whether it gets even more unpleasant – or whether stressed-out shoppers weary of rising prices may finally get some relief.
Image source: Nenad Stojkovic 
