Never mind the turkey – we’re just days away from Black Friday and the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. But what if those Black Friday coupons, deals and discounts are “fake”?
Shoppers are increasingly worried that holiday deals aren’t all they’re cracked up to be – and retailers have reason to worry that their “real” deals won’t be able to cut through the noise.
A survey from Lightspeed Commerce found that 84% of shoppers believe retailers hike their prices ahead of big sales events, in order to offer “fake” discounts later that look greater than they are.
That’s left many shoppers skeptical about how much they can trust big savings events like Black Friday. “Consumers want pricing that is straightforward and trustworthy,” a separate report from AlixPartners found. “They’re tired of working to find prices they can believe in.” The prevalence of discounts can leave shoppers wondering what the “real” price of an item even is. That is leading to “discount burnout,” AlixPartners concluded, as “deeper markdowns no longer guarantee stronger demand.”
So Lightspeed Commerce advises more honesty in pricing. “In a tight economy, transparency is the strongest sales strategy retailers have,” Lightspeed CEO Dax Dasilva said in a statement. “It’s not just about discounts – it’s about building trust and confidence that bring customers back long after the holidays.”
Further complicating matters, Ibotta found that waiting for Black Friday deals can sometimes be exactly the wrong strategy. “Our receipt data shows many popular items, particularly in the gifting space, actually get more expensive during peak holiday season,” Ibotta found in its Holiday Outlook 2025 report. Last year, it says action figures that sold for $6 in October were priced at $14 in December. $12 audio equipment went for $34, and $49 health and fitness items sold for as much as $81 during the holiday season. “Brands are strategically increasing base prices when demand peaks,” Ibotta found.
The cure? Promotions. “Genuine promotions,” Ibotta advised, can prove “irresistible to price-conscious shoppers.”
Yet another survey, by RetailMeNot, found that more than half of shoppers said “deep discounts” can get them to spend more than planned over the holidays. About a third said the same about cash back rewards and easy-to-find promo codes. “Shoppers are pacing themselves, waiting for the right deal,” RetailMeNot found. “For retailers, the message is clear: steeper markdowns, layered savings, and loyalty-driven rewards aren’t just nice-to-haves – they’re the key to unlocking bigger baskets in a tighter budget year.”
Despite their doubts about whether Black Friday deals are really good deals at all, shoppers still plan to show up. “The pull of a bargain remains strong, even when trust is strained,” Lightspeed noted.
The National Retail Federation estimates that holiday spending will top $1 trillion for the first time this year. And a joint NRF-Prosper Insights & Analytics survey found that a record 186.9 million people plan to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. “Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts,” Prosper’s Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said in a statement. “Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up.”
Not all shoppers are that optimistic, though. Intuit found that more than half of holiday shoppers expect to encounter higher prices this year, and 25% anticipate fewer promotions and discounts. So they’re trying to free up room in their budgets in different ways. While 72% say they’re focused on hunting for deals, 47% are reducing spending on themselves, in order to afford gifts for others.
And if shoppers can find deals on everyday purchases for themselves, even better. Lightspeed found that half of shoppers plan to seek out Black Friday deals on everyday essentials like groceries, toiletries and household basics. And a quarter plan to use Black Friday only to purchase those everyday items.
The end result? A happy holiday for all, according to the NRF. “American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong,” NRF CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
So if you’re suffering “discount burnout,” don’t give up hope. The deals are waiting – just as long as you still have enough money by this time next week, to prove that your savings aren’t “fake.”
