It’s one of the ironies of grocery shopping – through a combination of promotions, savvy shopping and decreased demand for certain menu items any other time of the year, big food-focused holidays can turn out to be less expensive than your regular weekly grocery trip.
That’s the finding of a much-anticipated annual report ahead of Thanksgiving, out this morning, which has concluded that Thanksgiving dinner will cost you less this year than last.
And, unlike some other “less expensive” Thanksgiving meals that have gotten some attention in recent weeks, this one doesn’t resort to trickery to reach that conclusion.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey finds that a traditional holiday feast for ten will cost $55.18, down 5% from last year. It’s the third annual decline, though prices are still higher than they were four years ago.
The good news and the bad news is that the overall price decline is almost entirely due to a less-expensive turkey. A 16-pound turkey will cost an average of $21.50, or $1.34 per pound, down 16% from last year. “While fresh turkey prices continue to rise,” the AFBF notes, “prices for frozen turkeys – the most commonly used for Thanksgiving dinner – continue to fall.”
Part of the reason is that demand for turkey any other time of year is steadily declining. The AFBF found that the average American now eats only 13 pounds of turkey per year, nearly three pounds less than six years ago.
As for the other traditional menu items, prices for stuffing, cranberries and dinner rolls are slightly down, while prices for everything else are either the same or higher. So lower turkey prices are bringing down the overall average price of the full meal.
With demand down, and with turkey the main promotional lure as grocers compete for your holiday business, few savvy shoppers are realistically going to end up paying the AFBF’s average of $1.34 per pound for a turkey. Many major grocery chains begin their new weekly ad today with their Thanksgiving specials – Kroger is offering a frozen turkey for 99 cents per pound, while Albertsons’ is just 59 cents per pound, and Schnucks has them all beat with a frozen turkey for as low as 28 cents per pound, which it’s touting as its lowest price ever. And that’s if you pay anything at all, since many stores offer free turkeys with a minimum purchase requirement.
Ibotta is also running its sixth annual “Thanksgiving on Us” promotion, offering discounts on holiday staples and the opportunity for new participants to earn 100% cash back on a turkey purchase.
As for those pesky, pricey side dishes, some stores have been called out for “cheating” in touting their eye-catching meal deals. Target’s Thanksgiving dinner combo costs about the same as last year, but swaps out a couple of items for less-expensive alternatives. And it’s been widely reported that Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal that costs “25% less” also has several substitutions and half as many items.
And one meal alone is not necessarily indicative of overall grocery prices. The Thanksgiving menu benefits from the fact that it doesn’t include proteins like eggs and beef, which have helped pushed the cost of food at home up 2.7% this year, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.
With that in mind, the AFBF concluded its good-news Thanksgiving price announcement on a more measured note. “Though this is the third straight annual decline, consumers have not fully recovered from the sharp increases that pushed the classic dinner to a record high in 2022,” the organization said. “These consumer savings come as many farmers enter 2026 facing a poor farm economy marked by falling crop prices, persistently high input costs, and lingering weather and disaster losses.”
So Thanksgiving dinner this year may not break the bank. It’s the day after, that we may have more to worry about. So leave yourself lots of leftovers – your Thanksgiving feast may turn out to be the best bargain you’ll see all year.
Image source: Tim Reckmann 
